Pick: Berwick
Stake: 2%
Odds: 1,80
Final reason for bet
· Fifth placed Berwick takes on bottom team Dumbarton at home.
· Berwick beat Arbroath last weekend with 3-0. Berwick started excellent and played very well during the first half as they won with 1-0. The other half started with a strong period from the Arbroath team but although they had a lot of chances, they were not able to score. In the end Berwick could run away to a 3-0 victory. This periodic way of playing is typical for Berwick. Often they fall back after they have taken the lead. If they would be able to keep the play higher on the field they certainly would reach even better results. Nevertheless, this is of course a boost of confidence for Berwick, although 2-1 maybe would have been a more fair result.
· Berwick’s home figures this year reads three wins and two losses. The losses came to promotion candidates Airdrie, and mid table team Forfar who has been going quite well after that game with two more wins.
· No suspensions or new injuries are reported in Berwick, who has played with the same team the last two games, when they have managed four points from six.
· Dumbarton who has gathered nine points from 11 played games, has four straight losses on the road. Their main problem is the goal scoring with a goal difference of 9-17 so far. They have only managed two wins so far this season, both times against the other bottom team Alloa. This was in the first round and last weekend, when they managed a 1-0 win after a penalty shot. When the teams played each other in the middle of September the game ended 1-1. That game was played at home to Dumbarton.
· We believe that Berwick will manage to beat poor Dumbarton. However, considering Berwick’s shaky home record we keep the stake at medium level, proposing a 2% stake.
// SportsObserver 031107