Torquay - Carlisle, English Division 3
2004-03-06 16.00 CET
Pick: Torquay
Stake: 3%
Odds: 1,60 Expekt
Final reason for bet
· Torquay is a good home team.
· Torquay is in good form.
· Carlisle is a bad away team.
· Carlisle has to make changes in the starting line up because of departures and suspensions.
General comment about the game
On Saturday playoff chasing Torquay welcomes bottom side Carlisle for a division three clash. Torquay was supposed to play away to Mansfield in the middle of the week, but as many other games this week the game was postponed. Instead they have been able to rest and now they got their third home game in a row coming up. Torquay is in very good form. Now they have seven wins from the eight last games. The only loss came at home to Huddersfield four rounds ago. After that Torquay made a splendid performance when they beat Hull away from home with 1-0, followed by home victories over Scunthorpe and Boston United. The Boston game was another good spell by a fully fit and in form Torquay side. The Torquay side have no suspensions or injuries to deal with ahead of this game either.
Carlisle’s season was very much spoiled during the autumn months when they only managed to take 5 points from 21 games. The bad spell came to an end when they actually beat Torquay at home with 2-0. However that was during one of few bad periods for Torquay this year. Since their revitalisation, Carlisle has played quite well at home and managed to win four games from six, the other two were draws. On the road there has been two losses, one victory and two draws against Macclesfield and Cambridge, two teams that hardly can be counted as good home teams, since they reside as team 19 and 24 in the home table. The Macclesfield game was played last weekend and it was a rough affair between two teams that really need points in order to avoid relegation. Carlisle started quite good and managed to score the first goal after 24 minutes. However Macclesfield made a fast replication in the 29th minute when they made 1-1. Interesting is that both these goals were results of defensive mistakes than due to good attacking football. In the other half Carlisle was the better side and they had some opportunities to grab all three points. In front of this game Carlisle has a new, 18 year old striker, on loan from Preston. His name is Kelvin Langmead and he is expected to take a place on the bench against Torquay. Kelvin has not played any first team football for Preston. Since the Macclesfield game Carlisle has lost on loan forward Matty Fryatt (10 apps, 1 goal) back to Walsall, and also defender Paul Warhurst who has left the club after only one appearance. On the injury list, Carlisle has forward Kevin Henderson (10 (8) apps, 2 goals), forward Richie Foran (18 (1) apps, 4 goals), and defender Paul Raven (13 apps, 1 goal). Doubts also for midfielder Brendan McGill (28 (2) apps, 4 goals) who has problem with a knee. Furthermore, Carlisle has defender Paul Arnison (16 apps, 1 goal) suspended in the Torquay game. Arnison came from second division Hartlepool in mid November.
We believe that Torquay’s very good form will last also over this game. Of course Carlisle is a better team than during the autumn months but still they have only taken six points on the road and two were draws away to some of the worst home teams in the league and that does not impress us. Also bearing in mind that there has been some departures from the club and also players missing through injury and suspension, we believe that a medium stake on Torquay is a good bet. 3% is suggested.
Recent games for home team
|
2004-02-28 |
Torquay-Boston |
2-0 |
|
2004-02-24 |
Torquay-Scunthorpe |
1-0 |
|
2004-02-21 |
Hull-Torquay |
0-1 |
|
2004-02-14 |
Torquay-Huddersfield |
0-1 |
|
2004-02-07 |
Swansea-Torquay |
1-2 |
Recent games for away team
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2004-02-21 |
Macclesfield-Carlisle |
1-1 |
|
2004-02-17 |
Cambridge-Carlisle |
2-2 |
|
2004-02-14 |
Carlisle-Hull |
1-1 |
|
2004-02-07 |
Carlisle-Bury |
2-1 |
|
2004-01-24 |
Bristol-Carlisle |
1-0 |
Home table
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Torquay |
17 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
30-14 |
37 |
Away table
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Carlisle |
16 |
1 |
3 |
12 |
13-29 |
6 |
Links for this game
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// SportsObserver 040305
