Manchester United - Porto, UEFA Champions League
2004-03-09 20.45 CET
Pick: Manchester United
Stake: 3%
Odds: 1,65
Final reason for bet
· Manchester United is a very good home team.
· Manchester United in one of the most experienced teams in the history of Champions League and therefore knows how to handle this situation.
· United will have a more stable and experienced defensive line up than in last game against Porto.
· Porto is not as good playing away.
· Porto has six straight defeats on British turf.
General comment about the game
Tonight Manchester United will host Porto in the second leg of their encounter in UEFA Champions League. Porto won the first match a fortnight ago with 2-1 which means that Manchester United has to win to qualify for the quarterfinals. Porto was definitely the better team in the first leg. The Portuguese were more creative, faster and were able to really put the United team under pressure. United found it for once very hard to retain possession of the ball when they had lost it. This is usually one of the team’s strengths and it is also very important when playing knock out stages in European football. United’s manager Alex Ferguson was disappointed with their performance in the first leg and was happy to get away with only a one goal defeat. He knows that it will be a different game tonight when they play at home and he is certain that they will dramatically improve their performance since last game. With their good home record they should be quite confident that they can manage that. United will miss their club captain Roy Keane that was sent off in Porto for an unnecessary incident with Porto goalkeeper Victor Baia. Even if Keane’s absence on the field is important for United it has not the same significance as it would have had a few years ago. Back then Keane was really the driving force and the team lacked heart and persistence when he was out but this season and also last season United has managed really well without him. During the weekend they won against Fulham with 2-1 in the FA quarterfinal stage. They won with a certain authority that they have lacked recently. In that game Keane had taken a step backward playing in the defence with Nicky Butt replacing him in central midfield. As usual, Butt performed well and is likely to replace Keane once again tonight. Since New Year Manchester United has been injury plagued in their defensive line up and this lack of stability in the back is the main reason why they have dropped so many points lately. However, to this game they will welcome back Gary Neville from suspension and most likely Mikael Silvestre from injury. These two together with Wes Brown and John O’Shea/Phil Neville will be a much stronger force for the skilful Porto players to break down than in their last encounter.
Porto is an experienced side that won the UEFA cup last year. Many players are still there so they know exactly how to play knock out stages in European competition. In the first leg they really showed what a great home side they are. After United took the lead early on they bombarded against the visitors goal. Before halftime they had equalised with a good strike from South African International Benni McCarthy. The second half started as the first ended; with the Englishmen constantly under pressure. Eventually Portos great attacking skills paid off when McCarthy scored his second goal for the night. Porto will probably start with almost the same eleven as in last game a fortnight ago. Midfielder Pablo Mendes will be absent since he got injured during the weekend. However, they will get back Francisco Costinha from injury.
We think that it would be a major surprise if Manchester United would miss the quarterfinal stage of Champions League for the first time in eight years. We must bear in mind that Porto is a very good side especially at home and that this game on English turf will me a much harder game for the Portuguese champions. United has also a very good home record and if they can tighten up their defence they will go through because we are confident that they will score tonight. Medium stake, 3% is suggested.
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// SportsObserver 040309
