Aston Villa - Blackburn, English Premier League
2004-03-20 16.00 CET
Pick: Aston Villa
Stake: 2%
Odds: 1,91
Final reason for bet
· Aston Villa is in good form chasing a Champions League spot.
· Aston Villa is a good home team.
· Villa can continue with the same line up as recently.
· Blackburn has not impressed lately.
General comment about the game
Eight placed Aston Villa will be visited by 16th placed Blackburn in Saturday’s game at Villa Park. Aston Villa is in very good form having won nine games from their last 15 in the league. They have only lost four games during this period. Three of them have been to top teams such as Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool. In all of these matches they have played well and they have been unlucky to collect nil points. Their good results lately have put them in race for the fourth Champions League place. This is something that looked very much wasted a couple of months ago. Their last home game was a month ago against local rivals Birmingham. Aston Villa played really well the first 60 minutes and was 2-0 up. They had several chances to score more goals and it all looked to be an easy victory. However, Birmingham scored from one of a few chances and after that Villa stopped to play and let Birmingham control the game. This tactic usually backfires and that was exactly what happened that afternoon. Five minutes before the end Villa striker Juan Pablo Angel had a one on one with the Birmingham keeper and missed. Instead Birmingham equalised four minutes into overtime. A week after that Villa played away to struggling Everton. Villa was the better team before the break and created some fine chances but all were denied. Also in the beginning of the second half Villa created most but with 30 minutes to go Everton started to take over and also managed too score twice. Villa’s manager David O’Leary thought they had their own inability too score to blame for the defeat. He also thought that Everton were hungrier for victory and he was only satisfied with his back four. After resting for a fortnight they were back in action again last weekend when they played away to relegation battlers Wolverhampton. Villa won easily after scoring four times against a very poor Wolves side. Furthermore, Aston Villa has a very good home record. Especially the recent record when they have only dropped five points from seven matches and that have been to table toppers Arsenal and also the silly points against Birmingham. Midfielder Gavin McCann (20 apps, 0 goal) who has been suspended for the last five matches sustained an injury blow in training this week and will miss out once again. Full back Mark Delaney will also miss out once again since he has not recovered from injury. However, no other new injury or suspension worries are reported from the Villa camp.
Blackburn is involved in the relegation battle and has so been for the whole season. Currently they are on the right side four points clear of the drop zone. The main reason is their home record which is the worst in the league. However, their away record is quite decent, especially the last couple of months when they have only been defeated twice on seven attempts playing on the road. Last away game was against Charlton a month ago in a match ending with a home victory 3-2. In first half both sides created some good opportunities but it was the hosts that made the goals and were therefore 2-0 up before the break. In second half Blackburn fought their way back, but it took until the 74th minute before they could score and they also needed a terrible mistake by a Charlton defender in order to do that. Just before the end it looked as goalkeeper Brad Friedel was going to be the hero for Blackburn since he scored after a corner. But, in injury time Charlton scored the winner. After this game Blackburn have played two home games and only managed to collect one point. Last weekend they had the table toppers from London on visit. An injury plagued Blackburn squad battled well all the game but lacked ability too really compete with the superior Arsenal players. Two second half goals secured all points to the visitors. During this week manager Graeme Souness has had verbal conflicts with two of his strikers, Andy Cole (18(6) apps, 9 goals) and Dwight Yorke (15(7) apps, 4 goals). Both seem to be unhappy (definitely Yorke who would have left in January if the right bid had come) to play second violin since youngsters Jonathan Stead (3 apps, 2 goals) and Paul Gallagher (11(7) apps, 3 goals) has been the manager’s first choice frequently during the recent months. Newly signed Stead and Gallagher was sidelined in the last game so Cole started alongside Matt Jansen (9(9) apps, 2 goals). Jansen impressed and is likely to partner fit again Stead upfront on Saturday which leaves both Yorke and Cole out of the starting eleven again. Paul Gallagher is still struggling to get fit and is a major doubt for the game. Influential midfielder Garry Flitcroft (19(2) apps, 2 goals) seems to be fit again after he sustained a hamstring injury against Charlton a month ago. Also long term absentee defender Lorenzo Amoruso (7 apps, 2 goals) is back in contention.
This is a game that Aston Villa should win. They have home advantage, they have better players, they have better form and they have the better play. We must consider the fact that Villa sometimes lack the goal scoring touch as in the game against Everton and then Blackburn is good enough to battle and earn points. However, there are no signs that this will happen and Villa also need to win to remain in the challenge for a Champions League place next year. We keep the stake quite low on 2% tough.
Recent games for home team
|
2004-03-14 |
Wolverhampton-Aston Villa |
0-4 |
|
2004-02-28 |
Everton-Aston Villa |
2-0 |
|
2004-02-22 |
Aston Villa-Birmingham |
2-2 |
|
2004-02-11 |
Fulham-Aston Villa |
1-2 |
|
2004-02-07 |
Aston Villa-Leeds |
2-0 |
Recent games for away team
|
2004-03-13 |
Blackburn-Arsenal |
0-2 |
|
2004-02-28 |
Blackburn-Southampton |
1-1 |
|
2004-02-21 |
Charlton-Blackburn |
3-2 |
|
2004-02-11 |
Blackburn-Newcastle |
1-1 |
|
2004-02-07 |
Middlesbrough-Blackburn |
0-1 |
Home table
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Aston Villa |
13 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
19-12 |
25 |
Away table
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Blackburn |
14 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
19-20 |
16 |
Links for this game
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// SportsObserver 040319
