Newcastle - Everton, English Premier League
2004-04-03 16.00 CET
Pick: Newcastle
Stake: 3%
Odds: 1,70
Final reason for bet
· Newcastle is a very good home side, currently with five straight wins.
· Newcastle has an almost fully fit squad.
· Everton has players missing, especially up front.
· Everton has a bad away record.
General comment about the game
On Saturday fifth placed Newcastle will be visited by 14th placed Everton at home on S:t James’ Park. Newcastle is one of the teams trying to get the important fourth place in the league, meaning qualification for Champions League next season. This season Newcastle has lost many points in the end of games and that is the main reason why they are so far away from the top three. This is especially true when playing away. They have not won on the road since October and that is of course not acceptable if you want to compete for the title. However, since also other supposed top teams have underachieved on a consistent basis this season Newcastle are still in the race for the fourth place. And this is due to their very fine home record; since their miserable start of the campaign with only one point from three matches at home they have won nine games from twelve attempts on S:t James’ Park. In their last home game they played against another team challenging for European football next season, Charlton. The match ended with a comfortable victory for the hosts with 3-1. Manager Bobby Robson was very pleased with their performance and thought it was their best during the whole season. He was especially delighted with his captain Alan Shearer who scored two goals. Last game away against Bolton was a disappointment for Newcastle. They hade the better play and the better chances in first half but was 0-1 down after a fluke Bolton goal after just four minutes. Newcastle continued to throw everything at Bolton in the second half but a fine defensive display from the hosts denied Newcastle any points. In all Newcastle made a fine first half but the second was not something to remember. Newcastle skipper Shearer was disappointed after the game and thought the display was below-pair. Newcastle has also advanced to the quarter final stage in the UEFA Cup after beating Spanish side Real Mallorca with 7-1 aggregate. On Saturday Newcastle may welcome back important midfielder Kieron Dyer (21 apps, 0 goals) to the starting line up. Dyer has missed the latest games after he limped out of action in the UEFA Cup clash against Real Mallorca the 11th of March. Newcastle will sweat on the fitness of defenders Andy O’Brien (22(1) apps, 1 goal) and Aaron Hughes (26 apps). Manager Robson will give the pair time until kick off before deciding his starting eleven.
Everton is involved in the relegation battle. Their recent good run with five games without defeat has put them six points clear of the danger zone. Most of the points they have collected so far this season has come when playing at home. Their away record is one of the worst in the league with only one win and in total eight points from 14 matches. Their last game was at home against Middlesbrough. The game ended with a draw, 1-1. The first half was poor and the only man that showed some good performance was young striker Wayne Rooney. Also the second half was quite dull except for the last quarter when Everton first took the lead by striker Tomasz Radzinski just to capitalise five minutes later when Boro made the equaliser. On Saturday manager David Moyes has problems up front since both strikers Wayne Rooney (20(8) apps, 8 goals) and Duncan Ferguson (12(7) apps, 4 goals) is suspended. Furthermore striker Francis Jeffers (5(10) apps, 0 goals) will miss out through injuries and veteran striker Kevin Campbell (7(6) apps, 0 goals) is rated doubtful for the game. If he is not fit it will leave Moyes with only one fit striker; Tomasz Radzinski (21(5) apps, 8 goals). If needed, young James McFadden (6(9) apps, 0 goals) who has been used as a midfielder when playing in Everton, can deputise up front. Also defender Alan Stubbs (24(2) apps, 0 goals) will miss out through injury.
We believe that strong home team Newcastle will strengthen their bid for Champions League football next season by beating bad away team Everton on Saturday. Furthermore, Newcastle is almost fully fit and has shown good attacking football lately that they also on many occasions have been able to transform in to goals. Considering Everton’s fighting spirit and their recent good unbeaten run we will keep the stake at a medium level, 3%.
Recent games for home team
|
2004-03-28 |
Bolton-Newcastle |
1-0 |
|
2004-03-20 |
Newcastle-Charlton |
3-1 |
|
2004-03-14 |
Tottenham-Newcastle |
1-0 |
|
2004-02-29 |
Portsmouth-Newcastle |
1-1 |
|
2004-02-21 |
Newcastle-Middlesbrough |
2-1 |
Recent games for away team
|
2004-03-27 |
Everton-Middlesbrough |
1-1 |
|
2004-03-20 |
Leicester-Everton |
1-1 |
|
2004-03-13 |
Everton-Portsmouth |
1-0 |
|
2004-02-28 |
Everton-Aston Villa |
2-0 |
|
2004-02-21 |
Southampton-Everton |
3-3 |
Home table
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Newcastle |
15 |
9 |
3 |
3 |
26-10 |
30 |
Away table
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Everton |
14 |
1 |
5 |
8 |
13-25 |
8 |
Links for this game
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// SportsObserver 040402
