Millwall - Cardiff, English Division 1
2004-04-07 20.45 CET
Pick: Millwall
Stake: 3%
Odds: 2,18 (Note: Play as Acian hcp -0,5 at Pointbet)
Final reason for bet
· Millwall is in very good form.
· Millwall is mentally on a high since reaching their first ever FA Cup final.
· Cardiff often struggle when playing better teams on the road.
· Cardiff was lucky to get all three points in their latest game.
General comment about the game
On Wednesday night Millwall will take on Cardiff at home. Millwall is on a high since they during the weekend managed to reach their first ever FA Cup final. The win over fellow first division side Sunderland in the semi final also meant that they have qualified to next season’s UEFA Cup. The match was won by hard work, determination, heart and a nice goal form Aussie Tim Cahill in the first half. The match was even and could have ended in either way since both teams created dangerous chances that needed good saves from the keepers. However, in the end it was clear that Cahill’s goal was enough to earn Millwall the victory. Now Millwall has to come down to earth and try to forget the euphoria surrounding the amazing victory and the upcoming final against Manchester United in May. On Wednesday it is back to normal with an important and interesting league fixture against Cardiff. Currently Millwall resides in fifth place with the same number of points as team’s four to seven. Millwall has the advantages of fewer matches played than most of their rivals so a playoff spot is in their own hands. The gap to the two top teams seems however too big to be able to close. Their form is excellent; since New Year they have played twelve matches in the league and has won eight and only lost one of them. Also, they have won four and drawn on one occasion in the FA Cup. At home they are unbeaten since New Year managing four victories. In two of them they have beaten fellow playoff hopefuls West Ham and Sunderland. Last home game was against West Ham in a match that ended with a very comfortable home victory with 4-1. Unfortunately, Millwall has some injuries ahead of Wednesday’s clash; skipper and defender Kevin Muscat (27 apps, 0 goals) and winger Paul Ifill (24(4) apps, 8 goals) will be sidelined with the injuries they sustained in the first half during Sunday’s FA cup match. In that match they were replaced by Andy Roberts (27(3) apps, 1 goal) and Peter Sweeney (18(3) apps, 2 goals). Since both made good appearances they are likely to replace once again on Wednesday. Furthermore, player manager Dennis Wise (22(5) apps, 1 goal) is doubtful since struggling with a knee injury.
Cardiff resides in tenth place in the league. Their recent good form, especially at home, has put them in the race for a playoff spot. Currently they are five points behind Sheffield United in sixth place but have the advantage of one more match left to play. At home they have mixed good results with bad lately. Their three latest victories have been very impressive coming against promotion candidates such as West Ham, Norwich and Sheffield United. However, in between those games they have lost against Reading and Coventry. On the road they have two straight victories against relegation battlers Crewe and Gillingham. During the whole season they have found it extremely hard to get any points when playing away against teams in the upper half of the table. This is the main reason why they are not closer to playoff. Last game was on the road against Gillingham in a match that ended with a thrilling 2-1 victory for the visitors. Cardiff had the better play in the first half and was rightfully 1-0 up in half time after a header from top scorer Robert Earnshaw in an open goal. In second half Gillingham burst into life and made a real effort to equalise which they also managed quite early. The end was thrilling, four minute’s before the end Cardiff midfielder Lee Bullock scored the winning goal. Also this time Gillingham goalkeeper abandoned his goalposts with a weak performance so Bullock could score easily in the open goal. However, Gillingham had a golden opportunity to equalise just a minute after when they were awarded a penalty that they eventually blew. Also Cardiff missed a penalty in the first half. Cardiff manager Lennie Lawrence hailed his players battling display and was very relieved after the final whistle had blown. In all he thought they were a little bit fortunate to gain all three points because Gillingham deserved a draw. Cardiff has some injury worries ahead of Wednesday’s clash; midfielder and skipper Graham Kavanaugh (27 apps, 7 goals) will miss rest of the season because of the injury he sustained in the beginning of March. Also striker Peter Thorne (19(4) apps, 13 goals), midfielder William Boland (29(4) apps, 0 goals) and defender Rhys Weston (22(1) apps, 0 goals) will all miss out once again through injury.
Millwall is in an extremely good period. They are also on a high since Sunday’s heroic performance and a victory tomorrow will further strengthen their playoff bid. We do not think they will blow this chance since it is very important to maintain on their winning trail for the reminder of the season. Medium stake on the home team, 3%.
Recent games for home team
|
2004-03-27 |
Walsall-Millwall |
1-1 |
|
2004-03-24 |
Wimbledon-Millwall |
0-1 |
|
2004-03-21 |
Millwall-West Ham |
4-1 |
|
2004-03-13 |
Ipswich-Millwall |
1-3 |
|
2004-03-02 |
Sheffield United-Millwall |
2-1 |
Recent games for away team
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2004-04-03 |
Gillingham-Cardiff |
1-2 |
|
2004-03-27 |
Cardiff-Sheffield United |
2-1 |
|
2004-03-20 |
Crewe-Cardiff |
0-1 |
|
2004-03-16 |
Cardiff-Reading |
2-3 |
|
2004-03-13 |
Cardiff-Norwich |
2-1 |
Home table
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Millwall |
18 |
10 |
6 |
2 |
25-11 |
36 |
Away table
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Cardiff |
19 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
25-27 |
26 |
Links for this game
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// SportsObserver 040406
