Liverpool - Fulham, English Premier League
2004-04-17 16.00 CET
Pick: Liverpool
Stake: 3%
Odds: 1,65
Final reason for bet
· Liverpool is a good home team, especially since New Year.
· Liverpool does not have any important players missing.
· Liverpool’s top scorer Michael Owen seems to have hit goal scoring form again.
· Liverpool is a better team and must win to still have a reasonable chance for Champions League football next season.
· Fulham has performed badly on the road for several months.
General comment about the game
On Saturday Liverpool will play against Fulham at home on Anfield Road. Once again we will go for a Liverpool win. Last weekend when they played at home against Charlton it turned out to be a very disappointing bet. However, the match could easily have ended in the opposite way. Liverpool had amazing 16 shots on goal but could not score and Charlton had only three but scored. On several occasions this season and also during all of manager Gerard Houllier’s reign they have from time to time very difficult to create real chances even if they have most of the possession. Furthermore, there are several examples like the Eastern Monday game against Charlton when they have many goal opportunities but not finding the net. We recognize this inconsistency to be Liverpool’s biggest problem. When looking at the stats Liverpool is the team that has had most opportunities to score of all teams in the Premiership but lacks the goal scoring touch much more often than many of their rivals, especially when Michael Owen is missing. To be fair this is not just a problem about finding the net it is also the fact that even if Liverpool has most opportunities it is not necessarily good opportunities. Like in the Charlton game when 16 shots on goal sounds like real pressure but the reality was nothing like that. Most of Liverpool’s chances were only half chances and not good opportunities to score. On the other hand there are several examples when Liverpool has performed the opposite, like in the 4-0 trashing against Blackburn in the home match before the Charlton game. Furthermore, at home they have been much more consistent than playing away. Before last weekend’s defeat they had six wins and one draw from their latest seven games. Furthermore, they usually bounce back quick after losing points at home; only their first two home matches of the season has been two non-victories in a row. This fact together with more obvious such as that the team consist of many class players and their motivation to become fourth in the league will make it very tough for Fulham on Saturday. Once again Liverpool will be almost fully fit since only one player that should have been in contention for a place in the starting eleven is missing; competent wing back Steve Finnan (16(2) apps, 0 goals).
Fulham is currently on 10th place in the league. They are only five points behind fourth placed Liverpool but their recent form indicates that they will not be able to compete for European football next year. After their defeat on Eastern Monday at home against Blackburn, even their goalkeeper Edwin van der Sar told the press that he thinks Europe is out of their hands. During the early autumn months Fulham were one of the biggest surprises in the league. They played some very good football and it seemed like they were going to be a real threat for the bigger clubs, such as Newcastle and Liverpool, to become fourth in the league. However, they started to loose too many matches on the road and when they also sold their top scorer Louis Saha to Manchester United it become clear that they would not be able to threat anymore. Their recent form is not good; only two victories from their latest ten matches are not enough. On the road it is even worse; since their shock win over Manchester United back in October they have only managed to grab three more points from ten attempts before they finally won again last weekend against struggling Leicester. Fulham won by 2-0 after two goals from substitute striker Collins John. Manger Chris Coleman said after the game that he was very pleased when John was introduced to the game and managed to score shortly afterwards since Fulham had to defend for their lives because Leicester had them under pressure on many occasions. After the goal Leicester continued to press and hunted the equaliser but in the dying minutes Collins John scored his second from a counter attack. Two days after that victory they lost at home against Blackburn in a match ending 3-4. Obviously the players were very disappointed after the game since a win would have put them in a nice position and with a real chance of playing European football next season. However, they were not able to hold on to the lead they had and it was not undeserved that Blackburn turned out to be the winner. Fulham will once again be without injured midfielders Mark Pembridge (9(3) apps, 1 goal) and lee Clarke (25 apps, 2 goals). However, they will get back midfielder Junicho Inamoto (13(5) apps, 2 goals) for contention. Inamoto has been out since late February.
Liverpool is under pressure. After their two Eastern holidays defeats they are no longer in the driving seat for the fourth Champions League place. Their season so far has been anything but good and if they do not finish fourth it will be a disaster. However, we strongly believe that the Liverpool players can coupe with this situation and get an important and vital victory on Saturday. It could be a very thrilling finish of the season especially since they will be visited by their biggest rivals Newcastle in the last game of the season. But they need to win tomorrow to maintain in the race and we think they will manage that. Medium stake 3% is suggested.
Recent games for home team
|
2004-04-12 |
Liverpool-Charlton |
0-1 |
|
2004-04-09 |
Arsenal-Liverpool |
4-2 |
|
2004-04-04 |
Liverpool-Blackburn |
4-0 |
|
2004-03-28 |
Leicester-Liverpool |
0-0 |
|
2004-03-20 |
Liverpool-Wolverhampton |
1-0 |
Recent games for away team
|
2004-04-12 |
Fulham-Blackburn |
3-4 |
|
2004-04-10 |
Leicester-Fulham |
0-2 |
|
2004-04-03 |
Fulham-Birmingham |
0-0 |
|
2004-03-27 |
Manchester City-Fulham |
0-0 |
|
2004-03-20 |
Chelsea-Fulham |
2-1 |
Home table
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Liverpool |
16 |
9 |
2 |
5 |
26-14 |
29 |
Away table
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Fulham |
16 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
20-24 |
16 |
Links for this game
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// SportsObserver 040416
